Energy Market Update 16/12/2025

Welcome to our weekly energy market update, where we share the latest trends, shifts, and key developments impacting the energy sector. Whether it’s fluctuations in oil and gas prices, changes in renewable energy policies, or updates on energy infrastructure projects, we’re here to help you stay informed. Join us as we break down the most important factors influencing the market this week, and explore what these changes could mean for your business.

Current Market Drivers:

📈 US Henry Hub prices, hit a 3-year high last Wednesday, TTF spread has narrowed to about $4.70/mmbtu, the smallest gap since April 2021 sharply reducing the profit margins available to US LNG exporters, a trend that could deepen along the curve.

⚡ Ukraine continues to rely on power imports, tightening regional market conditions, Imports in Nov-25 hit their yearly highest level and exports collapsed, ceasing on 11th Nov.

🕊️ Progress in Ukraine peace talks, including Kyiv’s willingness to drop its NATO bid, has lifted expectations of de-escalation, adding bearish pressure to near- and mid-term gas contracts on reduced geopolitical risk.

🏭 Roughly 50 bcm, about 60%, of Europe’s gas demand lost since 2021 is gone for good because energy-intensive industries have relocated outside the EU, making the drop structural rather than temporary.

📉 UK GDP unexpectedly contracted by 0.1% in the three months to October, reinforcing weak macro momentum and boosting rate-cut expectations, which could weigh on near-to-mid-term energy demand and cap upside.

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