Energy Market Update 30/06/2026

Welcome to our weekly energy market update, where we share the latest trends, shifts, and key developments impacting the energy sector. Whether it’s fluctuations in oil and gas prices, changes in renewable energy policies, or updates on energy infrastructure projects, we’re here to help you stay informed. Join us as we break down the most important factors influencing the market this week and explore what these changes could mean for your business.

Current Market Drivers:

🚢 A reported cargo ship attack in the Strait of Hormuz has renewed safe passage concerns, with Qatari LNG recovery dependent on secure transit. Although the US and Iran have agreed to halt attacks, implementation risks remain high.

💹 Japan’s JERA warned LNG prices have limited downside over the next year, as repairs to Qatar’s LNG facilities, European storage restocking and the phase-out of Russian gas continue to support demand.

🌡️ Early forecasts suggest that 2027 could be hotter than 2026, implying sustained pressure on UK and European power infrastructure. With the most recent heatwave being the most severe on record, and humid nights prolonging cooling demand, rising grid stress and more frequent extremes are likely to underpin summer power contracts.

⛽ Australian energy exploration has reached a 10-year high as firms seek new gas reserves to meet rising Asian demand, signalling future LNG supply growth but leaving timing risks from regulation and project delivery.

⚡ NESO expects an 8.8% capacity margin this winter, suggesting UK generation remains adequate despite Iran-related disruption. However, the buffer is below last winter’s 10%, offering reassurance while capping upside in Winter 26 power.

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