Energy Market Update 01/07/2025

Welcome to our weekly energy market update, where we share the latest trends, shifts, and key developments impacting the energy sector. Whether it’s fluctuations in oil and gas prices, changes in renewable energy policies, or updates on energy infrastructure projects, we’re here to help you stay informed. Join us as we break down the most important factors influencing the market this week, and explore what these changes could mean for your business.

Current Market Drivers:

🕊️ Israel and Iran have signed a ceasefire, which appears to be holding, diminishing the geopolitical risk being priced into markets.

☀️ Battery storage and solar costs have halved over the last two years, potentially bolstering the European shift away from gas-fired generation.

📈 Volatility in US markets is driving capital into EU markets, potentially boosting renewable and grid investments, which may suppress may address some challenges to European renewable growth.

📊 Analysts project a 5% year-on-year increase in the European TTF gas benchmark during H2-25, supported by ongoing concerns surrounding low EU storage levels, geopolitical tensions, and sustained disruption to Russian gas supplies.

❄️ Europe has agreed to allow members to reduce storage targets to 80% under extreme market conditions, however whilst this reduces summer buying pressure, this risks reducing the supply security during winter.

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