Energy Market Update 09/09/2025

Welcome to our weekly energy market update, where we share the latest trends, shifts, and key developments impacting the energy sector. Whether it’s fluctuations in oil and gas prices, changes in renewable energy policies, or updates on energy infrastructure projects, we’re here to help you stay informed. Join us as we break down the most important factors influencing the market this week, and explore what these changes could mean for your business.

Current Market Drivers:

🌍 EU storage levels are comfortably on track to hit winter targets, with Asian LNG prices at a 15-month low due to subdued demand, helping to maintain European appeal for US cargoes.

🛠️ The Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) is set to boost transport capacity to Europe by 1.2 bcm annually from 2026, with plans to double its flows to 20 bcm by 2027, helping to offset the transition away from Russian gas supplies.

❄️ There is a 60% chance of La Niña developing over winter, suggesting colder weather conditions. Combined with prospects of weaker wind and a hydro shortfall, this could boost reliance on gas-fired generation. La Niña conditions last winter left EU storage levels at 34% full.

💥 Russia has launched its largest ever air strike on Ukraine over the weekend, signalling little attempt to broker peace. Trump has reignited threats of further sanctions on Russia and its oil buyers.

🌬️ WindEurope has cut its 2025 EU wind capacity forecast by 15% to 14.5 GW, citing slow permitting and grid bottlenecks, highlighting ongoing challenges to renewable buildout.

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