Energy Market Update 21/07/2026

Welcome to our weekly energy market update, where we share the latest trends, shifts, and key developments impacting the energy sector. Whether it’s fluctuations in oil and gas prices, changes in renewable energy policies, or updates on energy infrastructure projects, we’re here to help you stay informed. Join us as we break down the most important factors influencing the market this week and explore what these changes could mean for your business.

Current Market Drivers:

🚢 ICIS has pushed back its base-case forecast for LNG flows via Hormuz to resume from Aug-Sep 2026 to Oct-Nov 2026, warning that there could be a 9mt global LNG contraction due to Hormuz shipping disruptions, reversing a pre-war forecast for growth of around 30mt.

⚠️ Eni’s chief executive warns Europe’s gas supply risks could persist for years, supporting forward contracts, as Russian, Middle Eastern and Red Sea routes stay exposed. Germany’s plan to rebuild gas reserves in 2027 adds further bullish sentiment.

📈 The Winter-26 contract has surpassed the previous conflict settlement peak seen in Mar-26 and is now trading at its highest level since May-23, reflecting increasing geopolitical risk.

📉 Global energy demand signals look bearish as China’s Q2 growth slowed to 4.3%, while investment fell 5.7%, pointing to weak domestic demand. 🇪🇺 Economists have also cut 2026 euro-area growth to 0.5%, as Iran war disruption, tighter ECB policy and high inflation weigh on fuel demand.

🛡️ The European Commission maintains that there is no immediate security of supply concern for winter 2026-2027, while 🇦🇹 Austria expects storage to reach 80% by autumn, providing mild reassurance to the market.

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